Armed conflicts, invasions, terrorism, war and political instability are all forms of geopolitical risk. These types of events are not only a threat to world order but also world markets, due to the likelihood of a global stock sell off. Currently, the United States has amassed the largest military buildup in the Middle East since the Iraq War in March of 2003. That “shock and awe” campaign resulted in mass market uncertainty, rising oil prices, and long-term costs in the trillions for defense operations, military equipment, reconstruction, debt financing, foreign aid and long-term veteran care.
As the U.S. is once again gathering war ships, air craft and military personnel in Jordan, Bahrain, the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea — investors would be wise to prepare for a market rout, energy shock, inflation surge and ongoing economic disruption.
Why is Trump Threatening Iran
Iran has been a global menace for quite some time. Their history of anti-West sentiment, terror attacks, proxy wars, human rights violations, and relentless pursuit of nuclear weapons has made them one of the world’s most destabilizing forces.
According to the Jewish News Service:
“Iran has invested heavily—not only in uranium and missile technology, but in terror networks that span continents. Through its proxies and allies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, its leaders have exported a campaign of violence aimed squarely at civilians and democratic institutions. Their fingerprints can be found on bombings, assassinations, cyberattacks and propaganda that work to destabilize governments and threaten the notion of human freedom.”[1]
While the Islamic Republic has a bad actor on the world stage since the late 1970’s, its recent nuclear ambitions has made the current regime far more dangerous. New reports indicate that the Iranians are now as little as a week away from uranium enrichment and developing nuclear bomb-making material.[2]
President Trump has said on numerous occasions, that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. As recently as last week Reuters reported the President stating, “They can’t have a nuclear weapon, it’s very simple,” he said. “You can’t have peace in the Middle East if they have a nuclear weapon.”[3] Currently Iran is refusing to accept any limitations to its nuclear program.
A Strike on Iran and your Money
Ongoing tensions with Iranian leadership and the recent gathering of war ships in the Middle East are indicative of an increasingly volatile investment environment and one that will likely drive capital away from high-risk assets.
According to online trading platform, Capital.com, portfolio diversification and asset allocation become critical in moments like these where …
- Central Banks become less optimistic
- Corporate Earnings Turn Negative
- Market Commentary Becomes Gloomy
- Traders Avoid Risk-On Assets in Favor of Risk-Off Buys[4]
A U.S. strike on Iran not only heightens market volatility but also raises the prospect of retaliation, a prolonged conflict, and lingering economic implications. As Politico points out, wars are unpredictable and can fuel an escalating cycle of global violence.
“Wars have their own dynamics that are impossible to predict ahead of time. As Vietnam-era diplomat George Ball warned Lyndon Johnson, ‘Once on the tiger’s back, we cannot be sure of picking the place to dismount.’ America may bomb Iran, and it may get away with it. The Islamic Republic is weak, its defenses battered and its population restive. But the mullahs may retaliate and, in the process, they may kill American servicemen, thus mandating more American bombing. We may yet find ourselves in a cycle of retaliation and counter-retaliation, otherwise, on the tiger’s back.”[5]
Lest we forget, the last U.S. conflict with Iran cost trillions of dollars in direct military expenses, triggered lingering economic fallout, and resulted in a generation of disabled vets who required both care and federal compensation.
“Blood and Treasure”
The cost of war is often described as “blood and treasure” because it results in the senseless loss of life as well as the squandering of national wealth. In the early 1800s, during the war against Napoleon, Scottish economist James Mill famously said, “War is the pestilential wind which blasts the prosperity of nations. This is the devouring fiend which eats up the precious treasure of national economy, the foundation of national improvement, and of national happiness.”[6]
If a U.S. attack on Iran does indeed rattle the American economy, investors will undoubtedly rush to safe havens to protect their portfolios, savings and retirement funds. According to Investopedia, a financial safe haven is the antidote for global hostilities, military conflicts and broader geopolitical shocks:
“A safe haven investment can diversify an investor’s portfolio and may be beneficial in times of market volatility … When the market is in turmoil, the market value of many investments can fall steeply. When such systemic events occur, some investors look to buy safe-haven assets that are uncorrelated or negatively correlated to the general market during times of distress. While most assets are falling in value, safe havens either retain or increase in value.”[7]
Investment-grade metals like gold, silver, platinum and palladium are non-correlated assets that have intrinsic value, are highly liquid and universally rare. They have functioned as long-standing hedges against economic uncertainty and global chaos. According to UBS, the looming conflict with Iran is an inflection point where gold, in particular, will be popular with investors seeking to benefit from its unique protections.
“Investors will be looking to see if the conflict can be resolved through diplomacy, or whether military action is taken. From a market perspective, a key focus will be gold, which typically benefits from a flight to safety during periods of heightened geopolitical tensions. Even after rallying almost 65% in 2025 and 18% this year, we believe prices will continue to rise.”[8]
This may be the ideal window in which to acquire gold and other metals to help preserve and safeguard your money for what could be tumultuous weeks, months and years ahead.
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[1] https://www.jns.org/the-world-must-wake-up-irans-war-against-freedom-is-unleashed/
[2] https://thehill.com/policy/international/5751330-witkoff-iran-nuclear-threat/
[3] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/russia-warns-escalating-iran-tensions-amid-us-military-build-up-2026-02-19/
[4] https://capital.com/en-int/learn/glossary/risk-on-risk-off-definition
[5] https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/02/24/iran-us-strikes-expert-forum-roundup-00794832
[6] https://oll.libertyfund.org/quotes/james-mill-likens-the-expence-and-economic-stagnation-brought-about-by-war-to-a-pestilential-wind-which-ravages-the-country-1808
[7] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/safe-haven.asp
[8] https://www.ubs.com/us/en/wealth-management/insights/market-news/article.3128795.html
